AlgoriZone - UCM Ferrum Drone Base

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Note: This post refers to Version 1.1. The big change is that you can only launch/replenish 4 Drones a turn after the initial launch.

 

Yes, the "Death Fridge" has had many allegations of being "overpowered" so Hawk released Version 1.1.  Let's check the math and see if we can find any insight...

With 8 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 2 E13 hits:             47%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:  98%
Probability of getting 4 E10 hits:             4%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 47%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 91%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  99.5%

With 7 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting of 2 E13 hits:         26%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:   96%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 26%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 83%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  99.3%

With 6 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of 2 E13 hits:                         9%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:  90%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 9%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 68%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  98%

With 5 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:               79%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 46%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  95%

With 4 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:               60%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 20%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  89%

With 3 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:              30%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  74%

With 2 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  44%

Note: I have played one game with a double Ferrum list and I got one destroyed by turn 3(?) as I was advancing it up the board (not advised but I wanted to see how tough it was) to secure a focal point.  With 5DP and driving on and leaving it in your backfield, I don't think it can be be destroyed.  It is extremely vulnerable to MBTs though!

With 8 Drones, unless you need the E13, you should usually split to 2x 4 Drones (effectively, 2 E13 on a 4+).

With 5 Drones, I recommend you shooting at one target for pretty much 1 E13 on a 2+.

Furthermore, comparing vs. an Shaltari Ocelot:

• At 1.5x the points, you get...
• Better toughness, in your backfield and behind a building, you are not destroying a Ferrum.  EDGE - Ferrum.
• Range (Ferrum - long range, maneuverability of the Drones) vs. Ocelot (infinite fixed range).  EVEN.
• Firepower - I feel that in terms of killing power, the Ferrum is appropriately costed.  You need to whittle down the initial wave of Drones with your AA or you will feel the pain.

Verdict: The Ferrum will be a drain on your opponent's AA.  I think the biggest benefit of the Drones are in dropship hunting.