AlgoriZone - UCM "Fencing" - Sabre or Katana?

Note: All image(s) are property of Hawk Wargames.  Updated as of 1/20/14.

With the recent experimental release of the Katana... some of you are on the "fence" or maybe you think, from the forums, that power creep is happening!  Let's do the math...

There have been calculations already about Katanas vs MBT on the other sides, but let's go with Katana vs Sabre action!

Katana vs. Sabre
24" effective range, kills 33%.
If hull down (articulated fire)... 17%.
vs. Building = 2.22 DP (double the damage of the Sabre)

Sabre vs. Katana
28" effective range, kills 42%.  If smoke is deployed, 25%!
Articulated Weapon.

With a squad of 3, you are saving 21pts with the Katana.  That gives you a Wolverine or Missile Pods on an Albatross.

WHAT IF...

Sabre vs. Katana (Armor 8).
Kills 56%... if smoke, 33%.

Personally, I think the Katanas should be armor 8 and that would be suitable for the "light tank" description.  Wolverine B would damage on a 5+.

Katana hits on 3+ vs. Sabre
Kills 22%.

If you want a hammer unit, 9 Sabres are superior to 9 Katanas IMO.  That's three rows of 3 tanks that can shoot (first row, 2nd row can shoot over first, articulation let's the 3rd row shoot over the other two).  All in all, I think you need to maneuver and use articulation... otherwise, Katanas are the more versatile unit.

AlgoriZone - UCM Ferrum Drone Base

Note: All image(s) are the property of Hawkwargames!


Note: This post refers to Version 1.1. The big change is that you can only launch/replenish 4 Drones a turn after the initial launch.

 

Yes, the "Death Fridge" has had many allegations of being "overpowered" so Hawk released Version 1.1.  Let's check the math and see if we can find any insight...

With 8 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 2 E13 hits:             47%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:  98%
Probability of getting 4 E10 hits:             4%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 47%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 91%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  99.5%

With 7 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting of 2 E13 hits:         26%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:   96%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 26%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 83%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  99.3%

With 6 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of 2 E13 hits:                         9%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:  90%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 9%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 68%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  98%

With 5 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:               79%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 46%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  95%

With 4 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:               60%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 20%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  89%

With 3 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:              30%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  74%

With 2 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  44%

Note: I have played one game with a double Ferrum list and I got one destroyed by turn 3(?) as I was advancing it up the board (not advised but I wanted to see how tough it was) to secure a focal point.  With 5DP and driving on and leaving it in your backfield, I don't think it can be be destroyed.  It is extremely vulnerable to MBTs though!

With 8 Drones, unless you need the E13, you should usually split to 2x 4 Drones (effectively, 2 E13 on a 4+).

With 5 Drones, I recommend you shooting at one target for pretty much 1 E13 on a 2+.

Furthermore, comparing vs. an Shaltari Ocelot:

• At 1.5x the points, you get...
• Better toughness, in your backfield and behind a building, you are not destroying a Ferrum.  EDGE - Ferrum.
• Range (Ferrum - long range, maneuverability of the Drones) vs. Ocelot (infinite fixed range).  EVEN.
• Firepower - I feel that in terms of killing power, the Ferrum is appropriately costed.  You need to whittle down the initial wave of Drones with your AA or you will feel the pain.

Verdict: The Ferrum will be a drain on your opponent's AA.  I think the biggest benefit of the Drones are in dropship hunting.