AlgoriZone - UCM Ferrum Drone Base

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Note: This post refers to Version 1.1. The big change is that you can only launch/replenish 4 Drones a turn after the initial launch.

 

Yes, the "Death Fridge" has had many allegations of being "overpowered" so Hawk released Version 1.1.  Let's check the math and see if we can find any insight...

With 8 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 2 E13 hits:             47%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:  98%
Probability of getting 4 E10 hits:             4%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 47%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 91%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  99.5%

With 7 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting of 2 E13 hits:         26%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:   96%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 26%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 83%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  99.3%

With 6 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of 2 E13 hits:                         9%
Probability of getting at least 1 E13 hit:  90%
Probability of getting at least 3 E10 hits: 9%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 68%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  98%

With 5 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:               79%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 46%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  95%

With 4 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:               60%
Probability of getting at least 2 E10 hits: 20%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  89%

With 3 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting 1 E13 hit:              30%
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  74%

With 2 Drones (assume aiming at one target):
Probability of getting at least 1 E10 hit:  44%

Note: I have played one game with a double Ferrum list and I got one destroyed by turn 3(?) as I was advancing it up the board (not advised but I wanted to see how tough it was) to secure a focal point.  With 5DP and driving on and leaving it in your backfield, I don't think it can be be destroyed.  It is extremely vulnerable to MBTs though!

With 8 Drones, unless you need the E13, you should usually split to 2x 4 Drones (effectively, 2 E13 on a 4+).

With 5 Drones, I recommend you shooting at one target for pretty much 1 E13 on a 2+.

Furthermore, comparing vs. an Shaltari Ocelot:

• At 1.5x the points, you get...
• Better toughness, in your backfield and behind a building, you are not destroying a Ferrum.  EDGE - Ferrum.
• Range (Ferrum - long range, maneuverability of the Drones) vs. Ocelot (infinite fixed range).  EVEN.
• Firepower - I feel that in terms of killing power, the Ferrum is appropriately costed.  You need to whittle down the initial wave of Drones with your AA or you will feel the pain.

Verdict: The Ferrum will be a drain on your opponent's AA.  I think the biggest benefit of the Drones are in dropship hunting.

AlgoriZone: Fast Movers and the Turn 1 "Auto-Win"

There's been a lot of discussion on the Hawk Forums about Fast Movers being an "auto-win" (e.g., your commander can be destroyed on Turn 1 and there's nothing you can do if your opponents gets lucky and rolls well).

Assumption: All Fast Movers are part of one squad.  There's a 14% chance that one squad will come out of reserve and be available to be on the attack run.  With two squads, that probability drops to 2%!

Zeus:  With only 2DP, this is the easiest commander to one-shot right?  For each Fast Mover...

• vs Athena - 1.29%
• vs Corsair - 0.39%  (If sending two to do 1DP each, then it's 1.35%.  The math gets more complicated to figure out if you send 3-4 Corsairs.)
• vs Seraphim - 1.29%
• vs Warspear - 1.03%

So assuming maximum Fast Movers in a squad, there's a 2-3% chance of losing your commander on Turn 1.

Assumption: For the Kodiak and Coyote, the Warspear, Athena and Seraphim must do double damage each to destroy them.

Coyote:  

• The Coyote still has the Eject! rule so you will have to send another Fast Mover squad to take out the Command Module after the attack run that destroys the Coyote.  As a result, it's nearly impossible to take it out on Turn 1.  It's included here for discussion for fun.
• vs Athena - 2.89% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0%
• vs Corsair - 1.16% to do 2DP so, at a minimum, 2 Corsairs to do 4DP is 0%!  A Corsair has about a 2.31% chance of doing 1DP each.  For all 4 Corsairs to do 4DP total (1 DP each), it is about 0%.  It's complicated calculating a mixture of 1DP and 2DPs so I do not do it here.)
• vs Seraphim - same probabilities as Athena
• vs Warspear - 0.77% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0%

The Coyote & Command Module cannot be destroyed on Turn 1!

Kodiak:

• vs. Athena - 5.79% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0.34% 
• vs. Corsair - 2.31% to do 2DP so, at a minimum, 2 Corsairs to do 4DP is nearly 0%.  A Corsair has about 4.63% chance of doing 1DP each.  For all 4 Corsairs to do 4DP total (1 DP each), it is about 0%.  Same comments as above, but the probability of a kill can be safely assumed to be very low.
• vs. Seraphim - same probabilities as Athena
• vs Warspear - 1.54% to do 2DP, so 4DP is about 0%

So to be generous, the Kodiak could be destroyed by 4 Corsairs with probably a 2% chance, if that?!

Desolator:  

Being the only airborne commander, how easy is it to take out with Fast Movers?  For each Fast Mover...

• vs Athena - 0.24 DP (on Turn 1), 1.67 DP (normally)
• vs Corsair - 0.08 DP (on Turn 1), 0.56 DP (normally)
• vs Archangel - 0.12 DP (on Turn 1), 0.74 DP (normally)
• vs Warspear - 0.18 DP (on Turn 1), 1.11 DP (normally)

Assumption:  The "best" Fast Mover, hits on 3+ and had E7... will do double damage 1.5% time on Turn 1 and 11% on normal attack runs.  You need at least 3 shots to take down the Desolator in one turn.  Even on normal turns that's less than 1% chance to take the Desolator down if only using 3 shots.

What is the probability of destruction if my Commander is in a Medium Dropship?
Successful Turn 1 availability, attack run availability, destroyed in air result... 2% and that hasn't factored in destroying the dropship!

Successful Turn 1 availability, attack run availability, crash landing result... 7% and that hasn't factored in destroying the dropship!

What can you do to prevent the "auto-win"?  It is assumed that you know that your opponent has Fast Movers available.

• Since Fast Movers cannot intercept Dropships, land your Commander on Turn 1.  Better yet, walk/drive them on Turn 1.
• Use the buildings to shield from attack runs if possible.  Remember, building above 6" cannot be flown by.  The Desolator may have to hit the deck as well.
• Walk/drive on AA Tanks so they will be available for reaction fire.
• Use your own Fast Movers to intercept.
• Take another Commander as backup.
• Losing your Commander is not an auto-lose condition, you can still win initiative with a natural 6 roll.

Personally, I think walking/driving on a squad of AA is one of the best plays on Turn 1 (I'll talk about this more in another blog post).

TL:DR - There is no Fast Movers "auto-win" on Turn 1.
 

AlgoriZone: Main Battle Tanks

Main Battle Tank: As a required Standard choice, these units are aimed primarily at destroying enemy AA and are the core of your ground firepower.

In a MBT vs MBT fire fight, here are the AlgoriZone calculations (kill%):

Threat   Unit        Sabre   Hunter   Hunter   Tomahawk   Tomahawk   Damage        Kill
                                                      Skimmer                      Skimmer       Ares           Ares
28"     Sabre          28%       56%       33%         46%              28%           28%          14%
21"     Hunter        42%       69%       42%         46%              28%           28%          28%
30" Tomahawk     28%       56%       33%          46%              28%           28%         14%
27"      Ares          42%       69%       56%          46%              37%           28%         28%

*With the Longbow Smart Smoke, the 28% becomes (22% (+1Ac) and 17% (+2Ac), respectively.
                                                         the 42% becomes (33% (+1Ac) and 25% (+2Ac), respectively.
** Ares - Targeting Array so Skimmers and Smart Smoke will only work for +1Ac.

TACTICAL TIP:  You may fire through one vehicle in the same squad as the Shooter.  However, remember that the Sabre is articulated so you can use 1" above the hull for drawing line of sight.  Enemy return fire to this point would be at hull down.

       Target  

     A     A     A
     B     B      B
     C     C      C        With articulated, C may fire over B & A (two rows of vehicles)!

TACTICAL TIP (from PipeRider361):  You can land a Condor after dropping off your Sabres and use as a "shield" while using articulated to fire!

As you can see from the above chart, you want to prioritize Tomahawks/Hunters when they dematerialise/disembark as they will lose the skimmer bonus.