AlgoriZone: Fast Movers and the Turn 1 "Auto-Win"

There's been a lot of discussion on the Hawk Forums about Fast Movers being an "auto-win" (e.g., your commander can be destroyed on Turn 1 and there's nothing you can do if your opponents gets lucky and rolls well).

Assumption: All Fast Movers are part of one squad.  There's a 14% chance that one squad will come out of reserve and be available to be on the attack run.  With two squads, that probability drops to 2%!

Zeus:  With only 2DP, this is the easiest commander to one-shot right?  For each Fast Mover...

• vs Athena - 1.29%
• vs Corsair - 0.39%  (If sending two to do 1DP each, then it's 1.35%.  The math gets more complicated to figure out if you send 3-4 Corsairs.)
• vs Seraphim - 1.29%
• vs Warspear - 1.03%

So assuming maximum Fast Movers in a squad, there's a 2-3% chance of losing your commander on Turn 1.

Assumption: For the Kodiak and Coyote, the Warspear, Athena and Seraphim must do double damage each to destroy them.

Coyote:  

• The Coyote still has the Eject! rule so you will have to send another Fast Mover squad to take out the Command Module after the attack run that destroys the Coyote.  As a result, it's nearly impossible to take it out on Turn 1.  It's included here for discussion for fun.
• vs Athena - 2.89% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0%
• vs Corsair - 1.16% to do 2DP so, at a minimum, 2 Corsairs to do 4DP is 0%!  A Corsair has about a 2.31% chance of doing 1DP each.  For all 4 Corsairs to do 4DP total (1 DP each), it is about 0%.  It's complicated calculating a mixture of 1DP and 2DPs so I do not do it here.)
• vs Seraphim - same probabilities as Athena
• vs Warspear - 0.77% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0%

The Coyote & Command Module cannot be destroyed on Turn 1!

Kodiak:

• vs. Athena - 5.79% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0.34% 
• vs. Corsair - 2.31% to do 2DP so, at a minimum, 2 Corsairs to do 4DP is nearly 0%.  A Corsair has about 4.63% chance of doing 1DP each.  For all 4 Corsairs to do 4DP total (1 DP each), it is about 0%.  Same comments as above, but the probability of a kill can be safely assumed to be very low.
• vs. Seraphim - same probabilities as Athena
• vs Warspear - 1.54% to do 2DP, so 4DP is about 0%

So to be generous, the Kodiak could be destroyed by 4 Corsairs with probably a 2% chance, if that?!

Desolator:  

Being the only airborne commander, how easy is it to take out with Fast Movers?  For each Fast Mover...

• vs Athena - 0.24 DP (on Turn 1), 1.67 DP (normally)
• vs Corsair - 0.08 DP (on Turn 1), 0.56 DP (normally)
• vs Archangel - 0.12 DP (on Turn 1), 0.74 DP (normally)
• vs Warspear - 0.18 DP (on Turn 1), 1.11 DP (normally)

Assumption:  The "best" Fast Mover, hits on 3+ and had E7... will do double damage 1.5% time on Turn 1 and 11% on normal attack runs.  You need at least 3 shots to take down the Desolator in one turn.  Even on normal turns that's less than 1% chance to take the Desolator down if only using 3 shots.

What is the probability of destruction if my Commander is in a Medium Dropship?
Successful Turn 1 availability, attack run availability, destroyed in air result... 2% and that hasn't factored in destroying the dropship!

Successful Turn 1 availability, attack run availability, crash landing result... 7% and that hasn't factored in destroying the dropship!

What can you do to prevent the "auto-win"?  It is assumed that you know that your opponent has Fast Movers available.

• Since Fast Movers cannot intercept Dropships, land your Commander on Turn 1.  Better yet, walk/drive them on Turn 1.
• Use the buildings to shield from attack runs if possible.  Remember, building above 6" cannot be flown by.  The Desolator may have to hit the deck as well.
• Walk/drive on AA Tanks so they will be available for reaction fire.
• Use your own Fast Movers to intercept.
• Take another Commander as backup.
• Losing your Commander is not an auto-lose condition, you can still win initiative with a natural 6 roll.

Personally, I think walking/driving on a squad of AA is one of the best plays on Turn 1 (I'll talk about this more in another blog post).

TL:DR - There is no Fast Movers "auto-win" on Turn 1.
 

GenCon 2013 - Championship Match vs Shaltari

Daniel's Army - sorry, I can't remember the last 53pts!
Clash: 1447/1500 points
Standard Army
    Standard Roster [1447/1500 pts]
        Gate Group [196 pts]
            Gaia: Gaia [76 pts]
            Eden Gates: Eden [45 pts]
            Eden Gates: Eden [45 pts]
            Haven: Haven [15 pts]
            Haven: Haven [15 pts]
        Court of Elders [341 pts]
            Coyote: Coyote(Shaman) [145 pts]
            Jaguar Squad: Jaguar [100 pts]
            Firstborns: 2x Firstborns [96 pts]
        Swordpoint [244 pts]
            Tomahawk Squad: 3x Tomahawk [114 pts]
            Firedrake: Firedrake [130 pts]
        Warrior Clan [263 pts]
            Braves: 2x Braves [64 pts]
            Braves: 2x Braves [64 pts]
            Kukri Squad: 3x Kukri [135 pts]
        Warfist [187 pts]
            Ocelot Squad: Ocelot [95 pts]
            Thunderbird Squad: 2x Thunderbird [92 pts]
        Arrowhead [216 pts]
            Warspear Squad: Warspear [108 pts]
            Warspear Squad: Warspear [108 pts]

Land Grab:  There are 5 Focal Points (F) on the battlefield.  You get 3VPs for having the most number of ground units within 6" of a F.  If you have one ground unit within 6" you can contest the F for 1VP.  Focal points can be destroyed in buildings and eliminated from the game.

Pre-Battle Analysis:  (I have never played Land Grab or Focal Points before.  For ease of the tourney, Hawk Simon told us to deploy normally.)

• Ground Units: 912 (Scourge) vs. 813 (Shaltari).  At the time, it "felt" like I was at a disadvantage in having a Desolator (airborne commander).  Looking back, Daniel brought an air superiority list.  In retrospect, the Firedrake is about the same points cost as the Desolator (without commander).
• Warstriders: While Shaltari skimmers are armored like paper mache, Warstriders are pretty resilient.
• Air Power: Two Warspears were definitely superior to my two Corsairs.  I've never encountered Thunderbirds (gunships) so I wasn't sure how good they would be.  The Firedrake can start firing blast templates on Turn 1 and the blast templates can negate skimmer defense bonuses. 
• Infantry: Sure, I had two squads of Destroyers but Braves and Firstborns are scary!  Outnumbering Daniel's infantry (4 to 3) was not going to be that much of an advantage as there were no objectives to search for in this scenario.
• Havens: Daniel only had 2 Havens so my strategy was to wipe them out and keep his infantry as spectators in orbit!
• Overall: For all the reasons above, I was not feeling confident as I felt that Daniel's list had the advantage in this scenario.

Highlights:

• Turn 1 - I rolled two 6's and both Corsairs were available!  Daniel got one Warspear though! He moved his Firedrake down Column B before driving his Kukri AA down the center.  I chose to not use my Corsairs because I didn't have much AA and I was afraid of losing one of them to a Warspear intercept.  So our Fast Movers did nothing on Turn 1.  What do you guys think?  Should I have tried to take out the FireDrake when I had my chance?  In hindsight, I should have gone for it as the FireDrake wrecked face!  It was amazing!!!
• Fearing the FireDrake's blast weapon, I drove my Hunters and Reapers behind building until they could spread out on Turn 2.  The FireDrake definitely slowed down my advance!  Daniel was in my head!  I hid behind Buildings 7, 8 and 9.  (So 3x Hunters and 3x Reapers to approach each Column (A and B).
• Daniel's Ocelot walked on Column A and the Jaguar and Coyote materialised on Column A.
• Daniel's Tomahawks were on Column B.
• Daniel's Thunderbirds went to the deck behind Building 5 & 6.  Smart move as my Corsairs could only attack them by going along the centerline on Daniel's side and would be subject to all the Kukri AA reaction fire.
• Daniel sent Braves to Buildings 1 and 3.  I sent infantry to Buildings 7 and 9.
• My strategy was to take out the Havens to strand his infantry and make a late turn push to Building 5 and gain 9 VPs to win the game.
• I sent my Prowlers behind Buildings 4 and 5 to defend/slow down his Warstriders.

• Turns 2-4 - It was stopped on time at the end of Turn 4.  
• It was really a Mexican standoff as we just maneuvered outside each other.  Personally, I couldn't risk losing infantry or other ground units because I needed them to "score." 
• Daniel's Thunderbirds and FireDrake destroyed a squad of Reapers on my right flank.  I managed to shoot down the Thunderbirds with my Corsairs (attack runs from Building 8 to 6 to just stay out of range of the Kukri).  Overall, Daniel's air power dominated my right flank.
• I tried to get my Tormentors up the field to threaten the Braves in Building 3 but they were destroyed.  In retrospect, I should have kept them back to try to win Focal Points.
• My Prowlers kept his Jaguar and Coyote busy on Column B.  He eventually destroyed 6 of them but they kept him occupied.  Eventually I sent 2 Prowlers to help win the F at Building 7.  I could have risked them to contest the F in Building 1 but Braves were firing from the windows.
• During the game, I kept on having more battlegroups than Daniel but I destroyed both Havens so maybe he forgot to activate his Firstborns from orbit?  They eventually marched onto the battlefield via foot.  Keeping the Firstborns from challenging Building 5 was huge IMO!
• With the Reapers short AA range and the Corsairs being only 50% accurate, Daniel was taking out my AA piecemeal.  
• Eventually, Daniel materialised his Kukri around Building 8 and his Ocelot at Building 7.  Luckily, I took out the Kukri.  Caught me by surprise!  I forgot that he could make a late game push to my side of the field. 
• I had two Underground Monorails and was gonna send my infantry for the late push to Building 5.
• We had no Close Quarter Battles.

Post-Game:

• Daniel had the Fs at Buildings 1 and 3.  With his Ocelot he contested the F at Building 7 and he had one Tomahawk at the F at Building 9.  I clearly had the F at Buildings 7 and 9.  Daniel (8 VPs) vs Me (6 VPs).  It all came down to Building 5.  Did I have enough?  Drum roll...
• I barely had more points (less than 10?) to win the F at Building 5 but Daniel contested it!  Daniel (9 VPs) vs Me (9 VPs).
• It went down to Kill Points.  Remember, within 200pts is a DRAW.  Well, I think we were within like 50pts.  DRAW!
• The next tie-breker was total kill points over the course of the tournament.

VICTORY!  GENCON CHAMPION!  (Barely, I think the kill point differential was 100pts?). 

• Fast Movers did not do much this game but I felt my Corsairs were enough of a deterrent to keep Daniel's Warspears at bay.
• You gotta really concentrate to take out WarStriders.
• FireDrake - that's a great unit!  Gunships can be useful!
• EPIC FINAL - thanks to Daniel for the great game and the closeness of the game cannot be expressed in words!

Post-Tourney:

• So I finished the tourney at 2-0-1.  I'm surprised that the eventual tie-breaker went to kill points instead of Victory Points.
• For the different variety of scenarios and armies, it's really hard to have a balanced army - part of the fun!