AlgoriZone: Fast Movers and the Turn 1 "Auto-Win"

There's been a lot of discussion on the Hawk Forums about Fast Movers being an "auto-win" (e.g., your commander can be destroyed on Turn 1 and there's nothing you can do if your opponents gets lucky and rolls well).

Assumption: All Fast Movers are part of one squad.  There's a 14% chance that one squad will come out of reserve and be available to be on the attack run.  With two squads, that probability drops to 2%!

Zeus:  With only 2DP, this is the easiest commander to one-shot right?  For each Fast Mover...

• vs Athena - 1.29%
• vs Corsair - 0.39%  (If sending two to do 1DP each, then it's 1.35%.  The math gets more complicated to figure out if you send 3-4 Corsairs.)
• vs Seraphim - 1.29%
• vs Warspear - 1.03%

So assuming maximum Fast Movers in a squad, there's a 2-3% chance of losing your commander on Turn 1.

Assumption: For the Kodiak and Coyote, the Warspear, Athena and Seraphim must do double damage each to destroy them.

Coyote:  

• The Coyote still has the Eject! rule so you will have to send another Fast Mover squad to take out the Command Module after the attack run that destroys the Coyote.  As a result, it's nearly impossible to take it out on Turn 1.  It's included here for discussion for fun.
• vs Athena - 2.89% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0%
• vs Corsair - 1.16% to do 2DP so, at a minimum, 2 Corsairs to do 4DP is 0%!  A Corsair has about a 2.31% chance of doing 1DP each.  For all 4 Corsairs to do 4DP total (1 DP each), it is about 0%.  It's complicated calculating a mixture of 1DP and 2DPs so I do not do it here.)
• vs Seraphim - same probabilities as Athena
• vs Warspear - 0.77% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0%

The Coyote & Command Module cannot be destroyed on Turn 1!

Kodiak:

• vs. Athena - 5.79% to do 2DP so 4DP is about 0.34% 
• vs. Corsair - 2.31% to do 2DP so, at a minimum, 2 Corsairs to do 4DP is nearly 0%.  A Corsair has about 4.63% chance of doing 1DP each.  For all 4 Corsairs to do 4DP total (1 DP each), it is about 0%.  Same comments as above, but the probability of a kill can be safely assumed to be very low.
• vs. Seraphim - same probabilities as Athena
• vs Warspear - 1.54% to do 2DP, so 4DP is about 0%

So to be generous, the Kodiak could be destroyed by 4 Corsairs with probably a 2% chance, if that?!

Desolator:  

Being the only airborne commander, how easy is it to take out with Fast Movers?  For each Fast Mover...

• vs Athena - 0.24 DP (on Turn 1), 1.67 DP (normally)
• vs Corsair - 0.08 DP (on Turn 1), 0.56 DP (normally)
• vs Archangel - 0.12 DP (on Turn 1), 0.74 DP (normally)
• vs Warspear - 0.18 DP (on Turn 1), 1.11 DP (normally)

Assumption:  The "best" Fast Mover, hits on 3+ and had E7... will do double damage 1.5% time on Turn 1 and 11% on normal attack runs.  You need at least 3 shots to take down the Desolator in one turn.  Even on normal turns that's less than 1% chance to take the Desolator down if only using 3 shots.

What is the probability of destruction if my Commander is in a Medium Dropship?
Successful Turn 1 availability, attack run availability, destroyed in air result... 2% and that hasn't factored in destroying the dropship!

Successful Turn 1 availability, attack run availability, crash landing result... 7% and that hasn't factored in destroying the dropship!

What can you do to prevent the "auto-win"?  It is assumed that you know that your opponent has Fast Movers available.

• Since Fast Movers cannot intercept Dropships, land your Commander on Turn 1.  Better yet, walk/drive them on Turn 1.
• Use the buildings to shield from attack runs if possible.  Remember, building above 6" cannot be flown by.  The Desolator may have to hit the deck as well.
• Walk/drive on AA Tanks so they will be available for reaction fire.
• Use your own Fast Movers to intercept.
• Take another Commander as backup.
• Losing your Commander is not an auto-lose condition, you can still win initiative with a natural 6 roll.

Personally, I think walking/driving on a squad of AA is one of the best plays on Turn 1 (I'll talk about this more in another blog post).

TL:DR - There is no Fast Movers "auto-win" on Turn 1.